“A military confrontation with Iran is inevitable,” Channel 13 quoted an Israeli official as saying last Saturday. A day later, N12 News reported that the Israeli Defence Forces had been ordered to complete “all preparations for the attack on Iran in mid-2025”.
This bellicose rhetoric from Tel Aviv was softened by Iranian President Pezeshkian in Tehran, who officially announced that his superior, Ayatollah Khamenei, supports “indirect negotiations” with Trump. Khamenei has got down on his knees, and that is a milestone.
With a murderer at the table
The spiritual leader feels compelled to negotiate with the American president. Diplomatic talks with the white-skinned executioner of his greatest martyr, Qasem Soleimani, must be an unbearable dilemma for Ayatollah Khamenei. Since 2016, he has labelled Trump a ‘clown’, ‘bully’, ‘arrogant’, ‘cruel’ and ‘demon’. As recently as this, he warned that negotiating with the US is “neither smart, sensible nor honourable”.
The painful reality for the Ayatollah – which literally means ‘sign of Allah’ – is that he now has to sit down at the negotiating table with the very ‘arrogant, cruel demon’ and murderer of his general, whom, according to the FBI, he himself wanted to kill until very recently. Painful.
Threatening war works
Ten years ago, the White House created an ‘echo chamber’ to sell the Iran nuclear deal to the public. The world has changed. Now, influential vloggers such as Tucker Carlson are taking on that role.
Following his interview with Steve Witkoff, Trump’s deal-maker envoy, Tucker published a YouTube compilation last week to mobilise the MAGA base with a narrative against a war with Iran. Yes, against a war with Iran.
Trump’s favourite FOX News presenter, Maria Bartiromo, revealed his letter to Khamenei for the first time three weeks ago in an interview with him. Last Sunday, she described the Iranian response to ‘indirect negotiations’ with Washington as a “success” for her president, who “manages to bring Iran to the table.”
FOX News tells Trump what he wants to hear. His loud bellicose rhetoric is intended to keep the ayatollahs on their toes, appease Israel and dominate the world news. Donald Trump is turning politics into a sensational reality show.
The indirect negotiations
Some analysts argue that Trump rejects indirect talks because he wants face-to-face negotiations. Others claim that Tehran is not serious and that Khamenei is merely trying to play for time, just as he did previously with Biden for 18 months.
Both views shed light on only part of the truth.
The fact is, however, that according to the US Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s greatest diplomatic success to date – the ceasefire in Gaza – was in fact achieved through indirect talks with Hamas in Qatar.
Despite the loud rhetoric of war, the diplomatic developments of the past three weeks reveal a surprising political will in both Tehran and Washington. Since the successful nuclear negotiations of ten years ago, the right ingredients for genuine talks now seem to be back on the table.
The fragile choreography of this diplomatic pas de deux could quickly be disrupted. Israel is dissatisfied. Europe has been sidelined. Russia is out of the picture. China is being threatened by Trump with secondary tariffs to limit imports of Iranian oil. This is significant because, according to Iranian customs data, approximately 83 per cent of Iran’s non-oil exports go to seven countries: China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
A few hours after Iranian President Pezeshkian officially welcomed indirect negotiations with the US, US President Trump, speaking to NBC News, threatened Iran with “bombings” if Tehran fails to reach a “nuclear deal” with Washington. He added that Iran and the US are “in talks”.
The casual reader focuses mainly on “bombings” and less on “in talks”. The realistic interpretation is that Trump is not rejecting Pezeshkian’s formal proposal for “indirect talks”. He even confirms that both parties are “in talks” and that negotiations are necessary to reach a nuclear agreement—albeit indirectly.
The Ayatollah’s calculated response a day later confirms this interpretation.
During his Friday prayer sermon, whilst this tyrant of a spiritual leader was holding a rifle [see larger photo], Khamenei promised that Israel would be “eliminated”. Khamenei also responded to Trump’s “bombings” remark by emphasising: “I do not think they will attack us from outside.” This confirms that Iranians are in talks with Americans.
Despite the verbal sabre-rattling, Trump and Khamenei are performing a delicate diplomatic balancing act.