Regional Update: Iran | The AIVD accuses Iran, in its recent annual report, of an attempted assassination in Haarlem. Iran’s urgent summons of the Dutch ambassador in Tehran, coupled with the Iranian ambassador in The Hague’s accusation that “the Netherlands supports terrorism”, highlights a power struggle that The Hague is seeking to avoid. As Iran’s third-largest EU trading partner, the Netherlands must, in addition to trade, respond appropriately to such security issues.
The “Axis of Revisionists”—China, Russia, North Korea and Iran—which opposes liberal constitutional states, comprises the states that, according to the AIVD, threaten our national security. Whilst the threats posed by the first three states are significant, the Iranian threat is alarming: the long arm of the Iranian state attacks Dutch citizens through hack-and-leak operations and assassination attempts.
The AIVD refers to “attempts” at assassinations without mentioning that Iran has previously had civilians killed by criminal gangs in Almere (2015) and in The Hague (2018). Tehran placed two Dutch Members of the European Parliament, a former minister and a Jewish organisation on its terrorism list. According to *De Groene Amsterdammer*, extradition requests were made for dozens of Iranian dissidents on charges of “terrorism”, with the death penalty as a consequence.
The Netherlands responded by expelling two diplomats and imposing symbolic sanctions against two Iranian ministries.
Iranian dissidents are under pressure worldwide, with twenty plots against British citizens since 2022 according to the British security service MI5. Tehran’s transnational aggression strengthens its position within the “Axis of Revisionists” and creates room for negotiation: Sweden and Belgium exchanged war criminals and terrorists sentenced to life imprisonment for prisoners. In contrast to European soft power diplomacy, this power-politics strategy appears to be effective.
“We are not powerless,” emphasises AIVD Director Akerboom in the annual report. “The Netherlands can do a great deal for our national security.” De Groene Amsterdammer qualifies this: the Netherlands is failing to protect political refugees, who live in “fear” whilst the government and police provide “insufficient” guarantees for their safety.
Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp is succeeding in strengthening the Netherlands’ intermediary role on the global geopolitical stage.
In November, Veldkamp received his Iranian counterpart Araghchi for the first time in ten years to promote “de-escalation” in the Middle East. A month earlier, he had conveyed “the announcement of an Israeli attack” to Iran. That deserves support. The more actively The Hague intervenes geopolitically, the better it is for the Netherlands and for the European liberal-democratic model. But this role is only effective if it acts as a deterrent against transnational Iranian aggression towards the Netherlands.