Iran Update | The “credibility and sincerity” of Iran’s new president must be “measured” by “the recognition of equal rights for all citizens” of the country. This was how the influential former reformist politician Zahra Rahnavard assessed the new president.
Rahnavard, who wears a headscarf and was once an advocate of the compulsory hijab, has been under house arrest since her political activism in 2009. In her recent letter, she reveals the profound cultural revolution taking place in Iran. As a former reformist, she warns that if, as president, Pezeshkian “does not prioritise women’s rights by releasing political prisoners, abolishing the compulsory hijab and introducing comprehensive laws to protect rights”, his domestic reform agenda will amount to typical empty promises.
Internationally, the EU statement—deliberately—failed to mention the abolition of the compulsory hijab, whilst the US-led ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence alliance did call on Iran to “end the use of force to enforce the hijab requirement.” Brussels is drastically watering down its demands on women’s rights in order to appease Islamic Tehran.
The Government of National Reconciliation is how the new reform-minded president prefers to refer to his cabinet, but in political reality it is orchestrated by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It is not Pezeshkian, but Khamenei, as the Guardian of the Islamic Jurist (in Arabic: Velâyat-e Faqih), who makes the crucial political decisions. For the Supreme Leader, whose mandate is to serve the Muslim community (Islamic Ummah) rather than to govern in the interests of the Iranian nation. Every government acts as an apologetic spectator and facilitator of a diplomatic façade. History shows that Iranian presidents have inevitably been crushed by the Supreme Leader whenever earthly governance clashes with divine authority.
Once again, for those deluding themselves, Pezeshkian’s accession shines as a beacon of hope. In reality, his honeymoon period paints a picture of despair. The number of Iranian women beaten to death or sentenced to death on false charges by the morality police, amidst a wave of executions over the past three months, is catastrophic. The figures do not lie. In August 2024 alone—one month after the presidential elections—at least 106 Iranians were hanged: one execution every seven hours.
Pezeshkian’s Cabinet of National Reconciliation, with an average age of 59.8 years, is the oldest in the regime’s history. This stands in stark contrast to the false political promises and the actual World Bank data, which indicate that 60 per cent of the Iranian population is under 45.
At first glance, his cabinet—with a single woman serving as Minister for Roads and Housing—appears more progressive than previous reformist governments. Yet it scores significantly lower in the statistics compared with the conservative government of Holocaust denier Ahmadinejad, twenty years ago.
A recently leaked survey by the Ministry of Culture revealed widespread “dissatisfaction” amongst the population. More than 90 per cent of Iranians are “dissatisfied” with the current state of the country and believe that the future, even with reforms, is “beyond repair”. Women’s rights, exemplified by the abolition of the compulsory hijab, are one of the most pressing issues identified by respondents. In reality, this survey reflects the slogan of the 2022 peaceful uprising for Women, Life, Freedom, which will shape the future, not Pezeshkian’s window-dressing Government of National Reconciliation.
The outlook for Pezeshkian’s government depends on the political role of the 85-year-old Supreme Leader, who primarily serves his ideological Ummah followers, unconcerned with good governance and national interests. Women and their call for freedoms act as an antidote to Khamenei’s political raison d’être.
The strict stance on the compulsory hijab stems from the belief that 99.5 per cent of Iran’s 90 million inhabitants are Muslim. However, an online survey by Gamaan, a Dutch research group, showed that around half of the 50,000 Iranian respondents had lost or changed their religion. Fewer than a third identified as Shia, the dominant Muslim denomination. Despite the ban on conversion, interest in non-Muslim religions such as Zoroastrianism and the Bahá’í Faith is growing. Evangelical Christians in Iran claim that Christianity is growing faster there than in any other country. As far as Israel and Jews are concerned, Iran has the lowest anti-Semitism index score in the Middle East, according to the ADL.
In reality, Iran is also the first pro-Jewish nation in the Muslim world!
President Pezeshkian’s visit to New York next week is intended to present his hopes for reconciliation. Despite his promises of national and international reconciliation, within the Islamic regime he functions as an apologetic bystander, creating a diplomatic smokescreen. He will reap mainly despair, as earthly governance will clash with the divine authority of the Ayatollah.
True hope, however, lies in the cultural revolution, embodied by the ‘Women, Life, Freedom’ uprising, with women leading the next political movement. Iran’s inevitable transformation will have a profound impact on the region, just as the 1979 Islamic Revolution fuelled Islamism.
Europe needs a comprehensive Iran strategy. To protect its cultural heritage, our old continent must continue to engage with the new continent, America, whilst becoming more sovereign. This requires courageous strategic choices grounded in historical awareness. Long before Europe came under the strategic tutelage of the US, the Persian-European alliance in the 16th century withstood Ottoman expansion. In the 19th century, the Franco-Iranian alliance curbed Russian aggression. In the 21st century, Europe’s ally against Islamism and Putinism is the Iranian nation, led by women. ⬧
Damon Golriz, strategic analyst and expert on Iran.