Iran Update | The rapid downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad represents not only a turning point for Syria, but also a seismic geopolitical shift in the region. For Iran, the fall of Assad’s regime evokes comparisons with the fall of the Berlin Wall, which heralded the end of the Soviet Union. Within two years of the Wall’s fall, the USSR ceased to exist. The Iranian leader Khamenei warned at the time of the risks of the Soviet state’s “regional overextension”. Yet he sent ground troops to Syria. Propping up Assad’s regime cost Iran 50 billion dollars and thousands of lives. But thirteen years later, Assad has fallen in less than thirteen days, and with him, Iran’s strategy in the Levant.

In the Persian media, the perception surrounding the Revolutionary Guards reveals a complex sentiment: alongside anger towards the ayatollahs, regime supporters view Assad’s fall as an eschatological harbinger of the coming of the Shia Messiah, Imam Mahdi, whereby the expectation of divine justice heightens the risk of sectarian tensions between Shias and Sunnis.

Iran’s New Strategy: Hindering Syrian State-Building: The fact that the Butcher of Damascus is seeking refuge with Putin rather than Khamenei reveals Tehran’s waning influence. Without access to Syria, Iran loses three of its five strategic fronts in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. On the Iraqi front, (1) the senior cleric Sistani is calling for Baghdad to have a monopoly on weapons, as a rebuff to Iran-affiliated militias. Khamenei’s growing isolation is destabilising his domestic position, which has already been severely weakened since the popular uprising of 2022. Tehran’s priority now is to thwart Erdogan’s state-building efforts in Syria. This is in line with Tehran’s approach: exploiting conflict zones, driven by anti-Semitism.

On the Iraqi front, (2) the senior cleric Sistani is calling for Baghdad to have a monopoly on weapons as a means of rejecting Iran-affiliated militias. Khamenei’s growing isolation is destabilising his domestic position, which has already been severely weakened since the popular uprising of 2022. Tehran’s priority now is to thwart Erdogan’s state-building efforts in Syria. This is in line with Tehran’s approach: exploiting conflict zones, driven by anti-Semitism.

President Erdogan supports rebels to strategically deepen Turkish influence amongst Sunnis. Whereas Khamenei based his sectarianism on a small minority of Islamists (3), Erdogan targets a large majority. Their rivalry centres on strategic dominance amongst Muslims: Iran amongst Shi’ites, Turkey amongst Sunnis.

Driven by nostalgia and delusions of grandeur, Erdogan is striving for a neo-Ottoman renaissance. This also serves to counter Erdogan’s domestic opposition forces. (4) However, the sectarian pursuit of regional dominance offers little hope for the rule of law, with Syria under Sunni rule likely to favour Sharia law over inclusive, secular governance.

The Geopolitical Chessboard: Erdogan is striving for regional hegemony by geostrategically stifling Iran. By courting Putin and pursuing an assertive Mediterranean policy, he seeks recognition in Brussels and Washington. Following the installation of a client regime in Syria, Turkey is attempting to sever northern Iran from the South Caucasus and Europe via the Zangezur corridor. In the south, Arabs and Europeans (5) are backing the UAE’s claim to three strategic Iranian islands, in line with Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ (6) campaign against Tehran.

Fourteen months after Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, which Khamenei described as a “decisive blow” against Israel, (7) Khamenei’s Axis of Resistance appears to have been wiped out. Iran’s strategic depth, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean, has been eroded. Against the backdrop of Israeli air strikes and the Turkish-led regime change in Syria, the region awaits Donald Trump, who, as the Nemesis of the ayatollahs, demands their surrender.

The Mullahs’ Antagonism: Any strategic capitulation would spell the destruction of the ayatollahs, so the regime will ramp up its antagonism. Although this seems irrational, its supporters reason otherwise. (8) They recognise that whilst steadfast resistance does come at a price, the price of capitulation is existential. When considering the dichotomy between ‘resistance’ and ‘capitulation’, it is precisely the latter option that motivates suicide bombers to sacrifice their lives for heavenly rewards—and thereby keep jihadist rulers in power. Faced with the threat of a potential regime crisis, Khamenei is likely to escalate: accelerating the nuclear programme, planning retaliation against Israel, intensifying his misogyny and eliminating dissidents in order to reshape the strategic chessboard.

Sources:

1. https://ina.iq/eng/36065-sayyid-sistani-expresses-his-regret-over-the-inability-of-the-international-community-and-its-institutions-to-impose-effective-solutions-to-stop-the-war.html

2. https://ina.iq/eng/36065-sayyid-sistani-expresses-his-regret-over-the-inability-of-the-international-community-and-its-institutions-to-impose-effective-solutions-to-stop-the-war.html

3.https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-sunni-and-shia

4.https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-anti-recep-tayyip-erdogan-opposition-reset-eu-nato

5.https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/10/16/first-european-union-gulf-cooperation-council-summit-joint-statement/

6.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-11/trump-s-national-security-pick-vows-return-to-iran-maximum-pressure

7.https://english.khamenei.ir/news/10705/Zionist-regime-moving-closer-to-its-extinction-day-by-day

8. https://english.khamenei.ir/news/9180/By-imposing-an-8-year-war-on-Iran-imperialism-wanted-to-put (in Persian: https://farsi.khamenei.ir/speech-content?id=40072)