Our analyst Michel Don Michaloliákos spoke at the invitation of the Association of Netherlands Municipalities (VNG) about the consequences of geopolitical developments for municipal resilience. For many, geopolitics seems to be a national or even supranational issue, but the consequences of geopolitical tensions are also increasingly being felt at the local level. In fact, municipalities have a major responsibility in making the Netherlands more resilient—perhaps even the greatest responsibility of all. But what exactly are the geopolitical challenges facing municipalities? How can they strengthen their resilience?

An important starting point is the fragmenting world order. Whereas the focus had long been on interstate conflicts, after 9/11 it shifted to intrastate threats and terrorism. Now the pendulum is swinging back again: states are once more central actors in conflicts and power struggles.

Resilience in essence: a question of trust and continuity
But this is not a repeat of the past. After all, our societies have become more digital and diverse, and our economies more complex. Precisely because of this, hostile state actors today have many more levers at their disposal: data, vital infrastructure, complex production chains, and trust in institutions. Influence is exerted not only through tanks, but also by stirring up doubt, friction, and polarization—in other words, by attacking the European model of society.

This makes resilience not an abstract security issue, but a social issue. And therefore also a local issue. Municipalities are at the forefront of strengthening social cohesion and identifying tensions at an early stage. And that is precisely where municipalities make a difference, or become vulnerable. In this way, major geopolitical issues are increasingly finding their way into neighborhoods. The question is not whether municipalities will have to deal with this, but how they will anticipate it.

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